Significant M5.9 Earthquake hit near Fayzabad in Afghanistan on Wednesday Evening.

Written by Earthquakelist.org on October 16th, 2024. Last updated December 15th, 2024.

In the evening of Wednesday October 16th, 2024, a significant Magnitude 5.9 earthquake hit under land 66 kilometer from Fayzabad in Afghanistan. Shaking may have been felt by a total of 15 million people. Tajikistan and Pakistan are also near its epicenter.

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Earthquake Summary

The earthquake struck on land in Afghanistan, 66 kilometer (41 mi) south of Fayzabad in Badakhshan. The center of this earthquake had an intermediate depth of 205 km.

Date and Time:	Oct 16, 2024 11:26PM (Kabul Time) - Oct 16, 2024 18:56 Universal Time.
Location:	66 km south of Fayzabad, Badakhshan, Afghanistan. Coordinates 36°31'21"N 70°34'5"E.
Map:	Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps.
Magnitude:	MAG 5.9 Detected by 66 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.038 .
Depth:	205 km (127 mi) An intermediate depth.
Max. Intensity:	IV Light On the Modified Mercalli Scale.
Tsunami Risk:	Tsunami very unlikely Tsunami's are usually caused by MAG-6.5+ earthquakes, less than 100km shallow, and with an epicenter under sea. Neither of this seems to be the case. Always stay cautious - More info here.

Minimal impact predicted

Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 fatalities, and a 96% chance that the number of fatalities falls no higher than 10.

The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 96% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 10 million USD.

Roughly 15 million people exposed to shaking

This earthquake may have been felt by around 15 million people. That is the expected population size of the area exposed to a level of shaking of II or higher on the Modified Mercalli scale according to the USGS.

An estimated 11,720,000 people were exposed to level III. At this level, weak shaking and probably no damage can be expected.

People in 3 countries have been exposed to shaking. Roughly 6.4 million people were exposed to shaking in Afghanistan , with level III (weak shaking, probably no damage) as the highest recorded. In Pakistan , around 5.3 million people. In Tajikistan , around 3.1 million people.

Nearby towns and cities

This earthquake struck within proximity of multiple countries. Afghanistan , Tajikistan and Pakistan are all within 300km distance of its epicenter. Futher away, this earthquake may also have been felt in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The closest significant population center near the earthquake is Fayzabad in Badakhshan, Afghanistan. Fayzabad is located 66 kilometer (41 mi) south of the epicenter. Fayzabad experienced an earthquake intensity (MMI Scale) of roughly III. That level implies weak shaking and probably no damage.

Major cities near this earthquake: Kabul is located 255 km to the south-southwest (intensity unknown, possibly low). Rawalpindi is located 396 km to the south-east (intensity unknown, possibly low). Peshawar is located 294 km to the south-southeast (intensity unknown, possibly low).

A complete list of nearby places is included below. Estimated intensity data (MMI) sourced from a shake-map published by the US Geographic Survey is shown where available (cities without data probably experienced little impact).

Overview of nearby places

Earthquake Intensity Map

The maximum intensity (MMI Scale) caused by this earthquake is III. The map below shows in which areas this earthquake was the most and least impactful. It is based on data from the US Geographic Survey.

I Not felt

II Weak

III Weak

IV Light

V Moderate

VI Strong

VII Very Strong

VIII Severe

IX Violent

X Extreme

Shaking reported by 8 people in 2 countries

People that feel an earthquake may report their experience to the US Geographic Survey. Currently, 8 people have reported shaking in 5 places in 2 countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan).We keep updating this article as more ground reports become available. You may report that you felt this earthquake here.

Places with most reports:

• Kabul, Kabul, Afghanistan: 4 people.
• Abottabad, North-West Frontier, Pakistan: 1 person.
• Baffa, North-West Frontier, Pakistan: 1 person.
• Tall, North-West Frontier, Pakistan: 1 person.
• Wah, Punjab, Pakistan: 1 person.

Aftershocks detected

Since this main shock, 1 smaller aftershock was detected. At a distance of 40 km (25 mi) east of this earthquake, an aftershock struck 16 hrs later. It measured a magnitude of 4.2

Before this earthquake struck, 5 smaller foreshocks occurred. Nearby this earthquake a foreshock struck 1 day earlier. It measured a magnitude of 4.3

Overview of foreshocks and aftershocks

More earthquakes coming?

Earthquakes can create aftershocks. These are generally at least 1 magnitude lower than any main shock, and as time passes the chance and strength of aftershocks decreases.

In only six percent of cases, significant earthquakes are followed by a larger main shock, making the current earthquake a foreshock. While the chance of this happening is not so large, it is adviced to maintain cautiousness in the hours and days following a major earthquake.

Earthquakes like this happen often in the region

Earthquakes of this strength are very common in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since January 11th, 2024, when a 6.4 magnitude earthquake hit 4 km (2.5 mi) further south-east. An even stronger magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck on October 26th, 2015.

In total, 13 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.9 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every 9 months.

Tsunami very unlikely

It is very unlikely that this eartquake will cause any tsunami's. The reported magnitude is lower than the MAG-6.5 strength required to cause any earthquakes. In addition, this earthquake was not very shallow and appears to have occurred under land. However always stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.

Tsunami Risk Factors

Sources

Last updated 15/12/24 08:08 (). As more information on this earthquake becomes available this article will be updated. This article is automatically composed based on data originating from multiple sources.

1. US Geographic Society (USGS): Earthquake us6000nz5n
2. European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC): Earthquake 20241016_0000317
3. Geonames.org: World Cities Database
4. Google Maps: Static API
5. Earthquakelist.org: Historic Earthquakes Database

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