On Sunday Morning a DAMAGING M6.3 Earthquake struck near Herāt in Afghanistan.

Written by Earthquakelist.org on October 15th, 2023. Last updated December 13th, 2023.

In the morning of Sunday October 15th, 2023, a DAMAGING and strong MAG-6.3 earthquake hit under land 34 kilometer from Herāt in Afghanistan. Earthquakes like this can cause significant economic damage and have a significant risk at casualties. Other countries near the epicenter include Iran and Turkmenistan.

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Earthquake Summary

The earthquake struck on land in Afghanistan, 34 kilometer (21 mi) north-northwest of Herāt in Herat. The center of this earthquake had a very shallow depth of 11 km. Shallow earthquakes usually have a larger impact than earthquakes deep in the earth.

Date and Time:	Oct 15, 2023 08:06AM (Kabul Time) - Oct 15, 2023 03:36 Universal Time.
Location:	34 km NNW of Herāt, Herat, Afghanistan. Coordinates 34°39'3"N 62°7'28"E.
Map:	Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps.
Magnitude:	MAG 6.3 Detected by 24 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.063 .
Depth:	11 km (7 mi) A very shallow depth.
Max. Intensity:	VIII Severe On the Modified Mercalli Scale.
Tsunami Risk:	Tsunami very unlikely While this was a shallow earthquake, it appears to have occurred under land with a magnitude not strong enough to cause tsunami's. Always stay cautious - More info here.

Significant impact predicted

Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level ORANGE (orange). They expect an 41% likelyhood of between 100 and 1,000 fatalities, and a 95% chance that the number of fatalities falls between 1 and 10,000.

The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level YELLOW (significant). They expect an 35% likelyhood of between 1 and 10 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 91% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 100 million USD.

Roughly 4.6 million people exposed to shaking

An estimated 4.6 million have been exposed to shaking (An MMI or Modified Mercalli Intensity level II or higher) as a result of this earthquake according scientific estimates published by the USGS.

Severe shaking and likely moderate to heavy damage may have been experienced by an estimated 660 people. At VIII, it is the highest MMI level this earthquake has caused. The majority of people (roughly 2.3 million) live in an area exposed to level IV, where light shaking and likely no damage is expected.

People in 3 countries have been exposed to shaking. In Afghanistan , around 3.7 million people, with impact levels up to VIII (severe shaking, likely moderate to heavy damage). In Iran , around 0.8 million people. People were exposed to shaking in Turkmenistan as well.

Nearby towns and cities

This earthquake struck within proximity of multiple countries. Afghanistan , Iran and Turkmenistan are all within 300km distance of its epicenter.

The closest significant population center near the earthquake is Herāt in Herat, Afghanistan. Herāt is located 34 kilometer (21 mi) north-northwest of the epicenter. The intensity of shaking and damage in Herāt is estimated to be around level VI on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (strong shaking, probably light damage).

Multiple major population centers exist within 300km of the earthquake that struck today. Herāt is located 34 km to the south-southeast and experienced an intensity of VI (strong shaking, probably light damage). Mashhad is located 293 km to the northwest (intensity unknown, possibly low). Neyshābūr is located 348 km to the west-northwest (intensity unknown, possibly low).

An overview of nearby towns and cities is available in the overview below. If places don't have intensity data available, it likely means the experienced impact in those places was fairly small.

Overview of nearby places

Earthquake Intensity Map

The maximum intensity (MMI Scale) caused by this earthquake is VIII. The map below shows in which areas this earthquake was the most and least impactful. It is based on data from the US Geographic Survey.

I Not felt

II Weak

III Weak

IV Light

V Moderate

VI Strong

VII Very Strong

VIII Severe

IX Violent

X Extreme

Shaking reported by 28 people in 3 countries

People that feel an earthquake may report their experience to the US Geographic Survey. Currently, 28 people have reported shaking in 8 places in 3 countries (Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Iran).We keep updating this article as more ground reports become available. You may report that you felt this earthquake here.

Places with most reports:

• Meshed, Khorāsān-e Razavī, Iran: 13 people.
• Herāt, Herāt, Afghanistan: 6 people.
• Aşgabat, Aşgabat, Turkmenistan: 2 people.
• Saragt, Khorāsān-e Razavī, Iran: 2 people.
• Torbat Jam, Khorāsān-e Razavī, Iran: 2 people.
• Gaz Aab, Urūzgān, Afghanistan: 1 person.
• Gunabad, Khorāsān-e Razavī, Iran: 1 person.
• Taibad, Khorāsān-e Razavī, Iran: 1 person.

11 Aftershocks detected

Since this main shock, 11 smaller aftershocks were detected. Just 20 mins after this main shock, an earthquake measuring MAG-5.4 was detected 9 km (5 mi) south-southwest of this earthquake.

This main shock was prefaced by 9 smaller foreshocks. Roughly 1 day before this earthquake, a foreshock measuring MAG-4.5 was detected nearby this earthquake.

Overview of foreshocks and aftershocks

More earthquakes coming?

Earthquakes can create aftershocks. These are generally at least 1 magnitude lower than any main shock, and as time passes the chance and strength of aftershocks decreases.

It's always adviced to be cautious of the risk of a larger shock following any significant earthquake, however this risk is fairly small. There is a roughly 94 percent change that no larger main shock will follow in the days following this earthquake.

Earthquakes like this are common in the region

Earthquakes of this strength occur quite regularly in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since October 11th, 2023, when a 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit 14 km (9 mi) further south-southwest. That was also the heaviest earthquake to hit the region in the past 10 years.

In total, 3 earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.3 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every 3 years.

Tsunami very unlikely

While MAG-6.5+ earthquakes may cause tsunami's, it appears that the epicenter of this earthquake hit under land. In addition, the reported depth is deeper than 100km, making the risk of a tsunami even less likely. However always stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.

Tsunami Risk Factors

Sources

Last updated 13/12/23 13:28 (). As more information on this earthquake becomes available this article will be updated. This article is automatically composed based on data originating from multiple sources.

1. US Geographic Society (USGS): Earthquake us6000lfn5
2. European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC): Earthquake 20231015_0000027
3. Geonames.org: World Cities Database
4. Google Maps: Static API
5. Earthquakelist.org: Historic Earthquakes Database

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