Significant M5.9 Earthquake struck on Tuesday Afternoon in the Bismarck Sea near Madang (Papua New Guinea).

Written by Earthquakelist.org on January 20th, 2026. Last updated February 16th, 2026.

A significant M5.9 earthquake struck in the Bismarck Sea 24 kilometer from Madang, Papua New Guinea in the late afternoon of Tuesday January 20th, 2026. Shaking may have been felt by a total of 3.4 million people.

Earthquake Summary

This earthquake hit under water in the Bismarck Sea, right off the coast of Papua New Guinea (10 mi offshore), 24 kilometer east-southeast of Madang. The center of this earthquake had an intermediate depth of 103 km.

Date and Time:	Jan 20, 2026 17:22 (Port Moresby Time) - Jan 20, 2026 07:22 Universal Time.
Location:	24 km ESE of Madang, Papua New Guinea. Coordinates 5°19'45"S 145°58'40"E.
Map:	Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps.
Magnitude:	MAG 5.9 Detected by 41 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.048 .
Depth:	103 km (64 mi) An intermediate depth.
Max. Intensity:	V Moderate On the Modified Mercalli Scale.
Tsunami Risk:	Tsunami very unlikely Earthquakes under MAG-6.5 at depths deeper than 100km are very unlikely to cause tsunami's. Always stay cautious - More info here.

Minimal impact predicted

Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 fatalities, and a 96% chance that the number of fatalities falls no higher than 10.

The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 96% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 10 million USD.

Roughly 3.4 million people exposed to shaking

The USGS has published a report estimating the number of people exposed to this earthquake. Acoording to their analysis, roughly 3.4 million have been exposed to shaking at an MMI level of II or higher.

The highest earthquake impact level for this earthquake is IV, which corresponds with light shaking and likely no damage. Roughly 943,400 people are expected to be exposed to this level. The majority of people (roughly 2.4 million) live in an area exposed to level III, where weak shaking and probably no damage is expected. All exposure to shaking was within the borders of Papua New Guinea .

People	MMI Level	Shaking	Damage
0	I	Not noticable	None
310	II	Very weak	None
2,444,000	III	Weak	Probably none
943,400	IV	Light	Likely none
0	V	Moderate	Very light
0	VI	Strong	Light
0	VII	Very Strong	Moderate
0	VIII	Severe	Moderate to heavy
0	IX	Violent	Heavy
0	X	Extreme	Very heavy

Nearby towns and cities

This earthquake may have been felt in Papua New Guinea . The closest significant population center near the earthquake is Madang in Madang, Papua New Guinea. Madang is located 24 kilometer (15 mi) east-southeast of the epicenter. The intensity of shaking and damage in Madang is estimated to be around level IV on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (light shaking, likely no damage).

The table below provides an overview of all places in proximity of today's earthquake. Where available, the estimated intensity on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale in each place is included. Places where this information is omitted likely experienced little impact.

Overview of nearby places

Cities and Towns around the epicenter of this earthquake.
Distance	Place	Intensity (MMI)
24 km (15 mi) WNW from epicenter	Madang Madang, Papua New Guinea.	IV Light
106 km (66 mi) SW from epicenter	Goroka Eastern Highlands, Papua New Guinea.	IV Light
192 km (119 mi) SE from epicenter	Lae Morobe, Papua New Guinea.	III Weak
202 km (126 mi) WSW from epicenter	Mount Hagen Western Highlands, Papua New Guinea.	III Weak
221 km (137 mi) SSE from epicenter	Bulolo Morobe, Papua New Guinea.
272 km (169 mi) WSW from epicenter	Mendi Southern Highlands, Papua New Guinea.
327 km (203 mi) NW from epicenter	Wewak East Sepik, Papua New Guinea.

Earthquake Intensity Map

The intensity in shaking and damage by this earthquake is illustrated through the map below. The highest intensity measured for this earthquake is IV.

I Not felt

II Weak

III Weak

IV Light

V Moderate

VI Strong

VII Very Strong

VIII Severe

IX Violent

X Extreme

Earthquake Intensity Map based on Shakemap Data provided by USGS.

Shaking reported by 3 people

People that feel an earthquake may report their experience to the US Geographic Survey. Currently, 3 people have reported shaking in 2 places in Papua New Guinea.We keep updating this article as more ground reports become available. You may report that you felt this earthquake here.

Places with most reports:

Mount Hagen, Western Highlands, Papua New Guinea: 2 people.
Kainantu, Eastern Highlands, Papua New Guinea: 1 person.

Risk of aftershocks?

This earthquake did not have any significant foreshocks nor aftershocks occurring within 100km (62 mi) of its epicenter.

Earthquakes can create aftershocks. These are generally at least 1 magnitude lower than any main shock, and as time passes the chance and strength of aftershocks decreases.

It's always adviced to be cautious of the risk of a larger shock following any significant earthquake, however this risk is fairly small. There is a roughly 94 percent change that no larger main shock will follow in the days following this earthquake.

Read: How to Stay Safe during an Earthquake (cdc.gov).

Earthquakes like this happen often in the region

Earthquakes of this strength are very common in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since December 22nd, 2025, when a 6.5 magnitude earthquake hit 64 km (40 mi) further southwest. An even stronger magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck on September 10th, 2022.

In total, 31 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.9 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every 4 months.

Tsunami very unlikely

DISCLAIMER: We strongly suggest to closely monitor advice from local authorities with regards to tsunami risks. Our analysis is based on automatically collected data from external sources, and these might contain mistakes. In addition, earthquakes can cause landslides that may lead to a tsunami, or be a followed by another, potentially stonger, earthquake.

For a serious tsunami to occur, earthquakes usually need to have a magnitude of at least 6.5 and occur at a shallow depth of maximum 100km. Neither are the case with this earthquake. However always stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.

Tsunami Risk Factors

Factor	Under Sea?	MAG-6.5 or stronger?	Shallow depth?
Explanation	Almost all tsunami's are caused by earthquakes with their epicenter under sea or very near the sea. However stay cautious in coastal areas as earthquakes on land may cause landslides into sea, potentially still causing a local tsunami.	Under MAG 6.5: Very unlikely to cause a tsunami. MAG 6.5 to 7.5: Destructive tsunami's do occur, but are uncommon. Likely to observe small sea level changes. MAG 7.6+: Earthquakes with these magnitudes might produce destructive tsunami's.	Most destructive tsunami's are caused by shallow earthquakes with a depth between 0 and 100km under the surface of the earth. Deeper tsunami's are unlikely to displace to ocean floor.
This Earthquake	This earthquake appears to have struck under the sea.	Not this earthquake. This earthquake had a magnitude of 5.9. Earthquakes of this strength are unlikely to trigger a tsunami.	Not this earthquake. This earthquake occurred at a depth of 103 km (64 mi). Earthquakes this deep in the earth are unlikely to trigger a tsunami.

Sources

Last updated 16/02/26 11:08 (). This article contains currently available information about the earthquake and is automatically composed. We continue to update this article up to a few days after the earthquake occurred.