Significant M5.2 Earthquake hit in the Bismarck Sea 136km from Lae (Papua New Guinea) on Monday Morning.

Written by Earthquakelist.org on January 5th, 2026. Last updated January 8th, 2026.

In the Bismarck Sea 136 kilometer from Lae, Papua New Guinea, a significant M5.2 earthquake occurred in the morning of Monday January 5th, 2026. Shaking may have been felt by a total of 1.2 million people.

Earthquake Summary

This earthquake hit under water in the Bismarck Sea, right off the coast of Papua New Guinea (10 mi offshore), 136 kilometer north-northeast of Lae in Morobe. The center of this earthquake had an intermediate depth of 175 km.

Date and Time:	Jan 5, 2026 10:42 (Port Moresby Time) - Jan 5, 2026 00:42 Universal Time.
Location:	136 km NNE of Lae, Morobe, Papua New Guinea. Coordinates 5°40'40"S 147°38'15"E.
Map:	Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps.
Magnitude:	MAG 5.2 Detected by 192 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.042 .
Depth:	175 km (109 mi) An intermediate depth.
Max. Intensity:	IV Light On the Modified Mercalli Scale.
Tsunami Risk:	Tsunami very unlikely Earthquakes under MAG-6.5 at depths deeper than 100km are very unlikely to cause tsunami's. Always stay cautious - More info here.

Minimal impact predicted

Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 fatalities, and a 96% chance that the number of fatalities falls no higher than 10.

The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 96% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 10 million USD.

Roughly 1.2 million people exposed to shaking

The USGS has published a report estimating the number of people exposed to this earthquake. Acoording to their analysis, roughly 1.2 million have been exposed to shaking at an MMI level of II or higher.

The highest earthquake impact level for this earthquake is III, which corresponds with weak shaking and probably no damage. Roughly 507,300 people are expected to be exposed to this level. Intensity level II was experienced by the majority of people (around 730 thousand). In their region, very weak shaking and no damage can be expected. All exposure to shaking was within the borders of Papua New Guinea .

People	MMI Level	Shaking	Damage
2,030	I	Not noticable	None
725,100	II	Very weak	None
507,300	III	Weak	Probably none
0	IV	Light	Likely none
0	V	Moderate	Very light
0	VI	Strong	Light
0	VII	Very Strong	Moderate
0	VIII	Severe	Moderate to heavy
0	IX	Violent	Heavy
0	X	Extreme	Very heavy

Nearby towns and cities

This earthquake may have been felt in Papua New Guinea . The closest significant population center near the earthquake is Lae in Morobe, Papua New Guinea. Lae is located 136 kilometer (85 mi) north-northeast of the epicenter. The intensity of shaking and damage in Lae is estimated to be around level III on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (weak shaking, probably no damage).

A complete list of nearby places is included below. Estimated intensity data (MMI) sourced from a shake-map published by the US Geographic Survey is shown where available (cities without data probably experienced little impact).

Overview of nearby places

Cities and Towns around the epicenter of this earthquake.
Distance	Place	Intensity (MMI)
136 km (85 mi) SSW from epicenter	Lae Morobe, Papua New Guinea.	III Weak
202 km (126 mi) SSW from epicenter	Bulolo Morobe, Papua New Guinea.	II Weak
211 km (131 mi) WNW from epicenter	Madang Madang, Papua New Guinea.
253 km (157 mi) W from epicenter	Goroka Eastern Highlands, Papua New Guinea.
277 km (172 mi) E from epicenter	Kimbe West New Britain, Papua New Guinea.

Earthquake Intensity Map

The maximum intensity (MMI Scale) caused by this earthquake is III. The map below shows in which areas this earthquake was the most and least impactful. It is based on data from the US Geographic Survey.

I Not felt

II Weak

III Weak

IV Light

V Moderate

VI Strong

VII Very Strong

VIII Severe

IX Violent

X Extreme

Earthquake Intensity Map based on Shakemap Data provided by USGS.

Shaking reported by 2 people

People that feel an earthquake may report their experience to the US Geographic Survey. Currently, 2 people have reported shaking in 2 places in Papua New Guinea.We keep updating this article as more ground reports become available. You may report that you felt this earthquake here.

Places with most reports:

Lae, Morobe, Papua New Guinea: 1 person.
Port Moresby, National Capital District, Papua New Guinea: 1 person.

Risk of aftershocks?

This earthquake did not have any significant foreshocks nor aftershocks occurring within 100km (62 mi) of its epicenter.

Earthquakes can create aftershocks. These are generally at least 1 magnitude lower than any main shock, and as time passes the chance and strength of aftershocks decreases.

In only six percent of cases, significant earthquakes are followed by a larger main shock, making the current earthquake a foreshock. While the chance of this happening is not so large, it is adviced to maintain cautiousness in the hours and days following a major earthquake.

Read: How to Stay Safe during an Earthquake (cdc.gov).

Earthquakes like this happen often in the region

Earthquakes of this strength are very common in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since December 22nd, 2025, when a 6.5 magnitude earthquake hit 237 km (147 mi) further west. An even stronger magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck on September 10th, 2022.

In total, 112 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.2 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every month.

Tsunami very unlikely

DISCLAIMER: We strongly suggest to closely monitor advice from local authorities with regards to tsunami risks. Our analysis is based on automatically collected data from external sources, and these might contain mistakes. In addition, earthquakes can cause landslides that may lead to a tsunami, or be a followed by another, potentially stonger, earthquake.

For a serious tsunami to occur, earthquakes usually need to have a magnitude of at least 6.5 and occur at a shallow depth of maximum 100km. Neither are the case with this earthquake. However always stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.

Tsunami Risk Factors

Factor	Under Sea?	MAG-6.5 or stronger?	Shallow depth?
Explanation	Almost all tsunami's are caused by earthquakes with their epicenter under sea or very near the sea. However stay cautious in coastal areas as earthquakes on land may cause landslides into sea, potentially still causing a local tsunami.	Under MAG 6.5: Very unlikely to cause a tsunami. MAG 6.5 to 7.5: Destructive tsunami's do occur, but are uncommon. Likely to observe small sea level changes. MAG 7.6+: Earthquakes with these magnitudes might produce destructive tsunami's.	Most destructive tsunami's are caused by shallow earthquakes with a depth between 0 and 100km under the surface of the earth. Deeper tsunami's are unlikely to displace to ocean floor.
This Earthquake	This earthquake appears to have struck under the sea.	Not this earthquake. This earthquake had a magnitude of 5.2. Earthquakes of this strength are unlikely to trigger a tsunami.	Not this earthquake. This earthquake occurred at a depth of 175 km (109 mi). Earthquakes this deep in the earth are unlikely to trigger a tsunami.

Sources

Last updated 08/01/26 00:18 (). This article contains currently available information about the earthquake and is automatically composed. We continue to update this article up to a few days after the earthquake occurred.