Shallow M5.4 Earthquake struck on Thursday Afternoon in the Bismarck Sea near Kokopo (Papua New Guinea).

Written by Earthquakelist.org on January 2nd, 2025. Last updated January 4th, 2025.

In the late afternoon of Thursday January 2nd, 2025, a shallow and significant M5.4 earthquake hit in the Bismarck Sea 91 kilometer from Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. Around 0.8 million people have been exposed to shaking.

Earthquake Summary

This earthquake hit under water in the Bismarck Sea, 44 kilometers (27 mi) off the coast of Papua New Guinea, 91 kilometer northwest of Kokopo in East New Britain. The center of this earthquake had a very shallow depth of 10 km. Shallow earthquakes usually have a larger impact than earthquakes deep in the earth.

Date and Time:	Jan 2, 2025 17:06 (Port Moresby Time) - Jan 2, 2025 07:06 Universal Time.
Location:	91 km NW of Kokopo, East New Britain, Papua New Guinea. Coordinates 3°45'36"S 151°41'38"E.
Map:	Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps.
Magnitude:	MAG 5.4 Detected by 12 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.089 .
Depth:	10 km (6 mi) A very shallow depth.
Max. Intensity:	V Moderate On the Modified Mercalli Scale.
Tsunami Risk:	Low tsunami risk Earthquakes under MAG-6.5 do not usually cause tsunami's. Always stay cautious - More info here.

Minimal impact predicted

Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 fatalities, and a 96% chance that the number of fatalities falls no higher than 10.

The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 96% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 10 million USD.

Roughly 0.8 million people exposed to shaking

This earthquake may have been felt by around 0.8 million people. That is the expected population size of the area exposed to a level of shaking of II or higher on the Modified Mercalli scale according to the USGS.

The highest earthquake impact level for this earthquake is IV, which corresponds with light shaking and likely no damage. Roughly 59,390 people are expected to be exposed to this level. The majority of people (roughly 650 thousand) live in an area exposed to level III, where weak shaking and probably no damage is expected. All exposure to shaking was within the borders of Papua New Guinea .

People	MMI Level	Shaking	Damage
0	I	Not noticable	None
90,160	II	Very weak	None
652,800	III	Weak	Probably none
59,390	IV	Light	Likely none
0	V	Moderate	Very light
0	VI	Strong	Light
0	VII	Very Strong	Moderate
0	VIII	Severe	Moderate to heavy
0	IX	Violent	Heavy
0	X	Extreme	Very heavy

Nearby towns and cities

This earthquake may have been felt in Papua New Guinea . Located 91 kilometer (57 mi) northwest of the epicenter of this earthquake, Kokopo (East New Britain, Papua New Guinea) is the nearest significant population center. The intensity of shaking and damage in Kokopo is estimated to be around level III on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (weak shaking, probably no damage).

Overview of nearby places

Cities and Towns around the epicenter of this earthquake.
Distance	Place	Intensity (MMI)
91 km (57 mi) SE from epicenter	Kokopo East New Britain, Papua New Guinea.	III Weak
263 km (163 mi) SW from epicenter	Kimbe West New Britain, Papua New Guinea.

Earthquake Intensity Map

The graph below overlays a map of the region around the epicenter with earthquake intensity data provided by the US Geographic Survey. The highest intensity level detected for this earthquake is IV.

I Not felt

II Weak

III Weak

IV Light

V Moderate

VI Strong

VII Very Strong

VIII Severe

IX Violent

X Extreme

Earthquake Intensity Map based on Shakemap Data provided by USGS.

2 Aftershocks detected

After this earthquake struck, 2 smaller aftershocks occurred. At a distance of 10 km (6 mi) east-southeast of this earthquake, an aftershock struck 19 hrs later. It measured a magnitude of 5.4

This main shock was prefaced by 9 smaller foreshocks. Roughly 19 hrs before this earthquake, a foreshock measuring MAG-5.1 was detected nearby this earthquake.

Overview of foreshocks and aftershocks

Detected MAG2.5+ earthquakes within within 100km (62 mi), that occurred in the three days before and after the main shock.
Classification	Magnitude	When	Where
Foreshock	M 5.0	2 days earlier Jan 1, 2025 03:09 (Port Moresby Time)	29 km (18 mi) S from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.6	1 day earlier Jan 1, 2025 11:46 (Port Moresby Time)	84 km (52 mi) SSE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.9	1 day earlier Jan 1, 2025 14:28 (Port Moresby Time)	50 km (31 mi) WSW from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.8	1 day earlier Jan 1, 2025 15:27 (Port Moresby Time)	34 km (21 mi) W from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.9	1 day earlier Jan 1, 2025 17:05 (Port Moresby Time)	8 km (5 mi) E from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 5.0	21 hrs earlier Jan 1, 2025 19:39 (Port Moresby Time)	8 km (5 mi) WSW from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 5.1	19 hrs earlier Jan 1, 2025 22:26 (Port Moresby Time)	6 km (4 mi) NE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.9	18 hrs earlier Jan 1, 2025 22:37 (Port Moresby Time)	14 km (8 mi) W from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.6	1 hr earlier Jan 2, 2025 15:48 (Port Moresby Time)	38 km (23 mi) SE from Main Shock.
Main Shock This Earthquake	M 5.4	Jan 2, 2025 17:06 (Port Moresby Time)	-
Aftershock	M 5.0	9 hrs later Jan 3, 2025 01:57 (Port Moresby Time)	17 km (11 mi) SW from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 5.4	19 hrs later Jan 3, 2025 11:47 (Port Moresby Time)	10 km (6 mi) ESE from Main Shock.

More earthquakes coming?

Earthquakes can create aftershocks. These are generally at least 1 magnitude lower than any main shock, and as time passes the chance and strength of aftershocks decreases.

In only six percent of cases, significant earthquakes are followed by a larger main shock, making the current earthquake a foreshock. While the chance of this happening is not so large, it is adviced to maintain cautiousness in the hours and days following a major earthquake.

Read: How to Stay Safe during an Earthquake (cdc.gov).

Earthquakes like this happen often in the region

Earthquakes of this strength are very common in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since November 15th, 2024, when a 6.6 magnitude earthquake hit 210 km (131 mi) further east-southeast. An even stronger magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck on December 17th, 2016.

In total, 142 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.4 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every 26 days.

Low tsunami risk

DISCLAIMER: We strongly suggest to closely monitor advice from local authorities with regards to tsunami risks. Our analysis is based on automatically collected data from external sources, and these might contain mistakes. In addition, earthquakes can cause landslides that may lead to a tsunami, or be a followed by another, potentially stonger, earthquake.

Based on early data it appears this earthquake was not strong enough (lower than MAG-6.5) to be likely to cause destructive tsunami's. However this earthquake appeared to have hit at a shallow depth under sea, so stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.

Tsunami Risk Factors

Factor	Under Sea?	MAG-6.5 or stronger?	Shallow depth?
Explanation	Almost all tsunami's are caused by earthquakes with their epicenter under sea or very near the sea. However stay cautious in coastal areas as earthquakes on land may cause landslides into sea, potentially still causing a local tsunami.	Under MAG 6.5: Very unlikely to cause a tsunami. MAG 6.5 to 7.5: Destructive tsunami's do occur, but are uncommon. Likely to observe small sea level changes. MAG 7.6+: Earthquakes with these magnitudes might produce destructive tsunami's.	Most destructive tsunami's are caused by shallow earthquakes with a depth between 0 and 100km under the surface of the earth. Deeper tsunami's are unlikely to displace to ocean floor.
This Earthquake	This earthquake appears to have struck under the sea.	Not this earthquake. This earthquake had a magnitude of 5.4. Earthquakes of this strength are unlikely to trigger a tsunami.	This earthquake occurred at a depth of of 10 km (6 mi). Earthquakes this shallow could trigger a tsunami.

Sources

Last updated 04/01/25 22:48 (). As more information on this earthquake becomes available this article will be updated. This article is automatically composed based on data originating from multiple sources.