Under land 103 kilometer from Kimbe in Papua New Guinea, a shallow and significant Magnitude 5.9 earthquake occurred in the morning of Thursday May 2nd, 2024. Around 610 thousand people have been exposed to shaking.
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Earthquake Summary
The earthquake struck on land in Papua New Guinea, 103 kilometer (64 mi) east-southeast of Kimbe in West New Britain. The center of this earthquake had a quite shallow depth of 29 km. Shallow earthquakes usually have a larger impact than earthquakes deep in the earth.
| Date and Time: | May 2, 2024 09:45 (Port Moresby Time) - May 1, 2024 23:45 Universal Time. |
|---|---|
| Location: | 103 km ESE of Kimbe, West New Britain, Papua New Guinea. Coordinates 5°48'3"S 151°2'13"E. |
| Map: |  Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps. |
| Magnitude: | MAG 5.9 Detected by 37 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.051 . |
| Depth: | 29 km (18 mi) A quite shallow depth. |
| Max. Intensity: | VI
Strong On the Modified Mercalli Scale. |
| Tsunami Risk: | Tsunami very unlikely While this was a shallow earthquake in a coastal area, it appears to have occurred under land (19 km from the sea) with a magnitude that is usually not strong enough to cause tsunami's. Always stay cautious - More info here. |
Minimal impact predicted
Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 fatalities, and a 96% chance that the number of fatalities falls no higher than 10.
The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 96% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 10 million USD.
Roughly 610 thousand people exposed to shaking
This earthquake may have been felt by around 610 thousand people. That is the expected population size of the area exposed to a level of shaking of II or higher on the Modified Mercalli scale according to the USGS.
The highest earthquake impact level for this earthquake is VI, which corresponds with strong shaking and probably light damage. Roughly 280 people are expected to be exposed to this level. Intensity level III was experienced by the majority of people (around 350 thousand). In their region, weak shaking and probably no damage can be expected. All exposure to shaking was within the borders of Papua New Guinea .
| People | MMI Level | Shaking | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | I |
Not noticable | None |
| 0 | II |
Very weak | None |
| 351,300 | III |
Weak | Probably none |
| 225,900 | IV |
Light | Likely none |
| 32,210 | V |
Moderate | Very light |
| 280 | VI |
Strong | Light |
| 0 | VII |
Very Strong | Moderate |
| 0 | VIII |
Severe | Moderate to heavy |
| 0 | IX |
Violent | Heavy |
| 0 | X |
Extreme | Very heavy |
Nearby towns and cities
This earthquake may have been felt in Papua New Guinea . The closest significant population center near the earthquake is Kimbe in West New Britain, Papua New Guinea. Kimbe is located 103 kilometer (64 mi) east-southeast of the epicenter. The intensity of shaking and damage in Kimbe is estimated to be around level IV on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (light shaking, likely no damage).
Overview of nearby places
| Distance | Place | Intensity (MMI) |
|---|---|---|
| 103 km (64 mi) WNW from epicenter |
Kimbe West New Britain, Papua New Guinea. |
IV
Light |
| 212 km (132 mi) NE from epicenter |
Kokopo East New Britain, Papua New Guinea. |
III
Weak |
Earthquake Intensity Map
The graph below overlays a map of the region around the epicenter with earthquake intensity data provided by the US Geographic Survey. The highest intensity level detected for this earthquake is VI.
Risk of aftershocks?
We have not yet detected any foreshocks or aftershocks (MAG-2.5 or higher) within 100km (62 mi) of this earthquake.
The risk of aftershocks decreases rapidly over time. Usually, aftershocks are at least one order of magnitude lower than a main shock.
The chance that a significant earthquake like this one is followed by an even larger earthquake is not so large. On average, scientists estimate a 94% chance that a major earthquake will not be followed by an even larger one. It is still adviced to be aware of this risk
Read: How to Stay Safe during an Earthquake (cdc.gov).Earthquakes like this happen often in the region
Earthquakes of this strength are very common in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since April 14th, 2024, when a 6.5 magnitude earthquake hit 5 km (3 mi) further east. An even stronger magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck on May 14th, 2019.
In total, 66 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.9 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every 2 months.
Tsunami very unlikely
While MAG-6.5+ earthquakes may cause tsunami's, it appears that the epicenter of this earthquake hit under land. In addition, the reported depth is deeper than 100km, making the risk of a tsunami even less likely. However always stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.
Tsunami Risk Factors
| Factor | Under Sea? | MAG-6.5 or stronger? | Shallow depth? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Explanation | Almost all tsunami's are caused by earthquakes with their epicenter under sea or very near the sea. However stay cautious in coastal areas as earthquakes on land may cause landslides into sea, potentially still causing a local tsunami. | Under MAG 6.5: Very unlikely to cause a tsunami. MAG 6.5 to 7.5: Destructive tsunami's do occur, but are uncommon. Likely to observe small sea level changes. MAG 7.6+: Earthquakes with these magnitudes might produce destructive tsunami's. |
Most destructive tsunami's are caused by shallow earthquakes with a depth between 0 and 100km under the surface of the earth. Deeper tsunami's are unlikely to displace to ocean floor. |
| This Earthquake | This earthquake appears to have struck on land near a coastal area (19 km from the sea). | Not this earthquake. This earthquake had a magnitude of 5.9. Earthquakes of this strength are unlikely to trigger a tsunami. |
This earthquake occurred at a depth of of 29 km (18 mi). Earthquakes this shallow could trigger a tsunami. |
Sources
Last updated 18/05/24 00:48 (). This article contains currently available information about the earthquake and is automatically composed. We continue to update this article up to a few days after the earthquake occurred.
- US Geographic Society (USGS): Earthquake us6000mvk5
- European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC): Earthquake 20240501_0000310
- Geonames.org: World Cities Database
- Google Maps: Static API
- Earthquakelist.org: Historic Earthquakes Database
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