Written by on . Last updated February 15th, 2025.

In the evening of Tuesday January 21st, 2025, a shallow and significant Magnitude 5.5 earthquake hit in the Bismarck Sea 102 kilometer from Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. Roughly 0.8 million people may have felt this earthquake.

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Earthquake Summary

This earthquake hit under water in the Bismarck Sea, 46 kilometers (29 mi) off the coast of Papua New Guinea, 102 kilometer northwest of Kokopo in East New Britain. The center of this earthquake had a very shallow depth of 10 km. Shallow earthquakes usually have a larger impact than earthquakes deep in the earth.

Date and Time: Jan 21, 2025 21:15 (Port Moresby Time)
- Jan 21, 2025 11:15 Universal Time.
Location: 102 km NW of Kokopo, East New Britain, Papua New Guinea.
Coordinates 3°45'59"S 151°33'4"E.
Map: Map of area around epicenter.
Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps.
Magnitude: MAG 5.5
Detected by 32 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.055 .
Depth: 10 km (6 mi)
A very shallow depth.
Max. Intensity:
V
Moderate

On the Modified Mercalli Scale.
Tsunami Risk: Low tsunami risk
Earthquakes under MAG-6.5 do not usually cause tsunami's.
Always stay cautious - More info here.

Minimal impact predicted

Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 fatalities, and a 96% chance that the number of fatalities falls no higher than 10.

The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 96% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 10 million USD.

Roughly 0.8 million people exposed to shaking

This earthquake may have been felt by around 0.8 million people. That is the expected population size of the area exposed to a level of shaking of II or higher on the Modified Mercalli scale according to the USGS.

Light shaking and likely no damage may have been experienced by an estimated 104,700 people. At IV, it is the highest MMI level this earthquake has caused. Intensity level III was experienced by the majority of people (around 670 thousand). In their region, weak shaking and probably no damage can be expected. All exposure to shaking was within the borders of Papua New Guinea .

People MMI Level Shaking Damage
0
I
Not noticable None
56,540
II
Very weak None
668,500
III
Weak Probably none
104,700
IV
Light Likely none
0
V
Moderate Very light
0
VI
Strong Light
0
VII
Very Strong Moderate
0
VIII
Severe Moderate to heavy
0
IX
Violent Heavy
0
X
Extreme Very heavy

Nearby towns and cities

This earthquake may have been felt in Papua New Guinea . Located 102 kilometer (63 mi) northwest of the epicenter of this earthquake, Kokopo (East New Britain, Papua New Guinea) is the nearest significant population center. The intensity of shaking and damage in Kokopo is estimated to be around level III on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (weak shaking, probably no damage).

Overview of nearby places

Distance Place Intensity (MMI)
102 km (63 mi)
SE from epicenter
Kokopo

East New Britain, Papua New Guinea.
III
Weak
253 km (157 mi)
SW from epicenter
Kimbe

West New Britain, Papua New Guinea.
Cities and Towns around the epicenter of this earthquake.

Earthquake Intensity Map

The intensity in shaking and damage by this earthquake is illustrated through the map below. The highest intensity measured for this earthquake is IV.

I Not felt
II Weak
III Weak
IV Light
V Moderate
VI Strong
VII Very Strong
VIII Severe
IX Violent
X Extreme
Earthquake Intensity Map based on Shakemap Data provided by USGS.

Aftershocks detected

This main shock was prefaced by 1 smaller foreshock. A 5.2 magnitude earthquake hit 18 mins earlier nearby.

Overview of foreshocks and aftershocks

Classification Magnitude When Where
Foreshock M 5.2 18 mins earlier
Jan 21, 2025 20:57 (Port Moresby Time)
11 km (7 mi)
NW from Main Shock.
Main Shock
This Earthquake
M 5.5 Jan 21, 2025 21:15
(Port Moresby Time)
-
Detected MAG2.5+ earthquakes within within 100km (62 mi), that occurred in the three days before and after the main shock.

More earthquakes coming?

Aftershocks are usually at least 1 order of magnitude less strong than main shocks. The more time passes, the smaller the chance and likely strength of any potential aftershocks.

In only six percent of cases, significant earthquakes are followed by a larger main shock, making the current earthquake a foreshock. While the chance of this happening is not so large, it is adviced to maintain cautiousness in the hours and days following a major earthquake.

Read: How to Stay Safe during an Earthquake (cdc.gov).

Earthquakes like this happen often in the region

Earthquakes of this strength are very common in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since November 15th, 2024, when a 6.6 magnitude earthquake hit 222 km (138 mi) further east-southeast. An even stronger magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck on December 17th, 2016.

In total, 118 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every month.

Low tsunami risk

DISCLAIMER: We strongly suggest to closely monitor advice from local authorities with regards to tsunami risks. Our analysis is based on automatically collected data from external sources, and these might contain mistakes. In addition, earthquakes can cause landslides that may lead to a tsunami, or be a followed by another, potentially stonger, earthquake.

Based on early data it appears this earthquake was not strong enough (lower than MAG-6.5) to be likely to cause destructive tsunami's. However this earthquake appeared to have hit at a shallow depth under sea, so stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.

Tsunami Risk Factors

Factor Under Sea? MAG-6.5 or stronger? Shallow depth?
Explanation Almost all tsunami's are caused by earthquakes with their epicenter under sea or very near the sea. However stay cautious in coastal areas as earthquakes on land may cause landslides into sea, potentially still causing a local tsunami. Under MAG 6.5: Very unlikely to cause a tsunami.
MAG 6.5 to 7.5: Destructive tsunami's do occur, but are uncommon. Likely to observe small sea level changes.
MAG 7.6+: Earthquakes with these magnitudes might produce destructive tsunami's.
Most destructive tsunami's are caused by shallow earthquakes with a depth between 0 and 100km under the surface of the earth. Deeper tsunami's are unlikely to displace to ocean floor.
This Earthquake This earthquake appears to have struck under the sea. Not this earthquake.
This earthquake had a magnitude of 5.5. Earthquakes of this strength are unlikely to trigger a tsunami.
This earthquake occurred at a depth of of 10 km (6 mi). Earthquakes this shallow could trigger a tsunami.

Sources

Last updated 15/02/25 13:58 (). As more information on this earthquake becomes available this article will be updated. This article is automatically composed based on data originating from multiple sources.

  1. US Geographic Society (USGS): Earthquake us6000plel
  2. European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC): Earthquake 20250121_0000142
  3. Geonames.org: World Cities Database
  4. Google Maps: Static API
  5. Earthquakelist.org: Historic Earthquakes Database

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