A significant Magnitude 5.7 earthquake struck in the Sulawesi Sea 96 kilometer from Manado, Indonesia in the morning of Thursday November 16th, 2023. Around 3.6 million people have been exposed to shaking.
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Earthquake Summary
This earthquake hit under water in the Sulawesi Sea, 82 kilometers (51 mi) off the coast of Indonesia, 96 kilometer northwest of Manado in North Sulawesi. The center of this earthquake had a deep depth of 303 km.
| Date and Time: | Nov 16, 2023 07:26 (Makassar Time) - Nov 15, 2023 23:26 Universal Time. |
|---|---|
| Location: | 96 km NW of Manado, North Sulawesi, Indonesia. Coordinates 1°58'31"N 124°8'12"E. |
| Map: |  Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps. |
| Magnitude: | MAG 5.7 Detected by 23 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.065 . |
| Depth: | 303 km (188 mi) A deep depth. |
| Max. Intensity: | IV
Light On the Modified Mercalli Scale. |
| Tsunami Risk: | Tsunami very unlikely Earthquakes under MAG-6.5 at depths deeper than 100km are very unlikely to cause tsunami's. Always stay cautious - More info here. |
Minimal impact predicted
Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 fatalities, and a 96% chance that the number of fatalities falls no higher than 10.
The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 96% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 10 million USD.
Roughly 3.6 million people exposed to shaking
The USGS has published a report estimating the number of people exposed to this earthquake. Acoording to their analysis, roughly 3.6 million have been exposed to shaking at an MMI level of II or higher.
The highest earthquake impact level for this earthquake is III, which corresponds with weak shaking and probably no damage. Roughly 3,579,000 people are expected to be exposed to this level. All exposure to shaking was within the borders of Indonesia .
| People | MMI Level | Shaking | Damage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | I |
Not noticable | None |
| 11,980 | II |
Very weak | None |
| 3,579,000 | III |
Weak | Probably none |
| 0 | IV |
Light | Likely none |
| 0 | V |
Moderate | Very light |
| 0 | VI |
Strong | Light |
| 0 | VII |
Very Strong | Moderate |
| 0 | VIII |
Severe | Moderate to heavy |
| 0 | IX |
Violent | Heavy |
| 0 | X |
Extreme | Very heavy |
Nearby towns and cities
This earthquake may have been felt in Indonesia . The closest significant population center near the earthquake is Manado in North Sulawesi, Indonesia. Manado is located 96 kilometer (60 mi) northwest of the epicenter. The intensity of shaking and damage in Manado is estimated to be around level III on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (weak shaking, probably no damage).
A complete list of nearby places is included below. Estimated intensity data (MMI) sourced from a shake-map published by the US Geographic Survey is shown where available (cities without data probably experienced little impact).
Overview of nearby places
| Distance | Place | Intensity (MMI) |
|---|---|---|
| 96 km (60 mi) SE from epicenter |
Manado North Sulawesi, Indonesia. |
III
Weak |
| 104 km (65 mi) SE from epicenter |
Tomohon North Sulawesi, Indonesia. |
III
Weak |
| 114 km (71 mi) SE from epicenter |
Tondano North Sulawesi, Indonesia. |
III
Weak |
| 200 km (124 mi) SW from epicenter |
Gorontalo Gorontalo, Indonesia. |
III
Weak |
Earthquake Intensity Map
The intensity in shaking and damage by this earthquake is illustrated through the map below. The highest intensity measured for this earthquake is III.
Risk of aftershocks?
We have not yet detected any foreshocks or aftershocks (MAG-2.5 or higher) within 100km (62 mi) of this earthquake.
Earthquakes can create aftershocks. These are generally at least 1 magnitude lower than any main shock, and as time passes the chance and strength of aftershocks decreases.
The chance that a significant earthquake like this one is followed by an even larger earthquake is not so large. On average, scientists estimate a 94% chance that a major earthquake will not be followed by an even larger one. It is still adviced to be aware of this risk
Read: How to Stay Safe during an Earthquake (cdc.gov).Earthquakes like this happen often in the region
Earthquakes of this strength are very common in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since January 18th, 2023, when a 6 magnitude earthquake hit 244 km (152 mi) further south-southwest. An even stronger magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck on November 14th, 2019.
In total, 34 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.7 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every 4 months.
Tsunami very unlikely
For a serious tsunami to occur, earthquakes usually need to have a magnitude of at least 6.5 and occur at a shallow depth of maximum 100km. Neither are the case with this earthquake. However always stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.
Tsunami Risk Factors
| Factor | Under Sea? | MAG-6.5 or stronger? | Shallow depth? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Explanation | Almost all tsunami's are caused by earthquakes with their epicenter under sea or very near the sea. However stay cautious in coastal areas as earthquakes on land may cause landslides into sea, potentially still causing a local tsunami. | Under MAG 6.5: Very unlikely to cause a tsunami. MAG 6.5 to 7.5: Destructive tsunami's do occur, but are uncommon. Likely to observe small sea level changes. MAG 7.6+: Earthquakes with these magnitudes might produce destructive tsunami's. |
Most destructive tsunami's are caused by shallow earthquakes with a depth between 0 and 100km under the surface of the earth. Deeper tsunami's are unlikely to displace to ocean floor. |
| This Earthquake | This earthquake appears to have struck under the sea. | Not this earthquake. This earthquake had a magnitude of 5.7. Earthquakes of this strength are unlikely to trigger a tsunami. |
Not this earthquake. This earthquake occurred at a depth of 303 km (188 mi). Earthquakes this deep in the earth are unlikely to trigger a tsunami. |
Sources
Last updated 03/12/23 00:48 (). This article contains currently available information about the earthquake and is automatically composed. We continue to update this article up to a few days after the earthquake occurred.
- US Geographic Society (USGS): Earthquake us6000lnq0
- European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC): Earthquake 20231115_0000216
- Geonames.org: World Cities Database
- Google Maps: Static API
- Earthquakelist.org: Historic Earthquakes Database
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