Shallow M5.9 FORESHOCK struck on Sunday Afternoon in the Bismarck Sea 132km from Kokopo (Papua New Guinea).

Written by Earthquakelist.org on November 12th, 2023. Last updated December 8th, 2023.

A shallow and significant Magnitude 5.9 foreshock struck in the Bismarck Sea 132 kilometer from Kokopo, Papua New Guinea in the afternoon of Sunday November 12th, 2023. Roughly 540 thousand people may have felt this earthquake.

Earthquake Summary

This earthquake hit under water in the Bismarck Sea, 57 kilometers (36 mi) off the coast of Papua New Guinea, 132 kilometer northwest of Kokopo in East New Britain. The center of this earthquake had a very shallow depth of 10 km. Shallow earthquakes usually have a larger impact than earthquakes deep in the earth.

Date and Time:	Nov 12, 2023 14:51 (Port Moresby Time) - Nov 12, 2023 04:51 Universal Time.
Location:	132 km NW of Kokopo, East New Britain, Papua New Guinea. Coordinates 3°37'30"S 151°19'29"E.
Map:	Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps.
Magnitude:	MAG 5.9 Detected by 10 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.098 .
Depth:	10 km (6 mi) A very shallow depth.
Max. Intensity:	V Moderate On the Modified Mercalli Scale.
Tsunami Risk:	Low tsunami risk Earthquakes under MAG-6.5 do not usually cause tsunami's. Always stay cautious - More info here.

Minimal impact predicted

Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 fatalities, and a 96% chance that the number of fatalities falls no higher than 10.

The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 96% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 10 million USD.

Roughly 540 thousand people exposed to shaking

An estimated 540 thousand have been exposed to shaking (An MMI or Modified Mercalli Intensity level II or higher) as a result of this earthquake according scientific estimates published by the USGS.

The highest earthquake impact level for this earthquake is IV, which corresponds with light shaking and likely no damage. Roughly 327,000 people are expected to be exposed to this level. All exposure to shaking was within the borders of Papua New Guinea .

People	MMI Level	Shaking	Damage
0	I	Not noticable	None
0	II	Very weak	None
209,700	III	Weak	Probably none
327,000	IV	Light	Likely none
0	V	Moderate	Very light
0	VI	Strong	Light
0	VII	Very Strong	Moderate
0	VIII	Severe	Moderate to heavy
0	IX	Violent	Heavy
0	X	Extreme	Very heavy

Nearby towns and cities

This earthquake may have been felt in Papua New Guinea . The closest significant population center near the earthquake is Kokopo in East New Britain, Papua New Guinea. Kokopo is located 132 kilometer (82 mi) northwest of the epicenter. The intensity of shaking and damage in Kokopo is estimated to be around level IV on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (light shaking, likely no damage).

Overview of nearby places

Cities and Towns around the epicenter of this earthquake.
Distance	Place	Intensity (MMI)
132 km (82 mi) SE from epicenter	Kokopo East New Britain, Papua New Guinea.	IV Light
251 km (156 mi) SSW from epicenter	Kimbe West New Britain, Papua New Guinea.

Earthquake Intensity Map

The intensity in shaking and damage by this earthquake is illustrated through the map below. The highest intensity measured for this earthquake is IV.

I Not felt

II Weak

III Weak

IV Light

V Moderate

VI Strong

VII Very Strong

VIII Severe

IX Violent

X Extreme

Earthquake Intensity Map based on Shakemap Data provided by USGS.

This is likely a foreshock

This earthquake was followed by a stronger MAG-6.1 earthquake, classifying this earthquake as a foreshock.

Overview of foreshocks and aftershocks

Detected MAG2.5+ earthquakes within within 100km (62 mi), that occurred in the three days before and after the main shock.
Classification	Magnitude	When	Where
Foreshock	M 4.5	3 days earlier Nov 10, 2023 19:02 (Port Moresby Time)	56 km (35 mi) ESE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.9	1 day earlier Nov 12, 2023 14:47 (Port Moresby Time)	32 km (20 mi) ENE from Main Shock.
Foreshock This Earthquake	M 5.9	1 day earlier Nov 12, 2023 14:51 (Port Moresby Time)	51 km (32 mi) NE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 5.5	1 day earlier Nov 12, 2023 15:54 (Port Moresby Time)	26 km (16 mi) ENE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 5.0	1 day earlier Nov 12, 2023 16:02 (Port Moresby Time)	22 km (13 mi) ENE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 5.2	1 day earlier Nov 12, 2023 16:12 (Port Moresby Time)	22 km (13 mi) E from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.9	1 day earlier Nov 12, 2023 16:25 (Port Moresby Time)	49 km (30 mi) ESE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.9	1 day earlier Nov 12, 2023 16:59 (Port Moresby Time)	43 km (26 mi) ESE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.6	24 hrs earlier Nov 12, 2023 18:01 (Port Moresby Time)	55 km (34 mi) ENE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.9	23 hrs earlier Nov 12, 2023 18:53 (Port Moresby Time)	61 km (38 mi) ENE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 5.2	22 hrs earlier Nov 12, 2023 19:48 (Port Moresby Time)	22 km (13 mi) NE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.3	14 hrs earlier Nov 13, 2023 03:44 (Port Moresby Time)	24 km (15 mi) NE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.6	14 hrs earlier Nov 13, 2023 04:10 (Port Moresby Time)	45 km (28 mi) N from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.5	12 hrs earlier Nov 13, 2023 05:45 (Port Moresby Time)	16 km (10 mi) E from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.6	11 hrs earlier Nov 13, 2023 06:41 (Port Moresby Time)	25 km (16 mi) ENE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.3	10 hrs earlier Nov 13, 2023 08:04 (Port Moresby Time)	87 km (54 mi) NE from Main Shock.
Foreshock	M 4.6	10 hrs earlier Nov 13, 2023 08:08 (Port Moresby Time)	14 km (9 mi) NE from Main Shock.
Main Shock	M 6.1	Nov 13, 2023 17:43 (Port Moresby Time)	-
Aftershock	M 4.9	9 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 02:39 (Port Moresby Time)	8 km (5 mi) SE from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 4.6	15 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 08:15 (Port Moresby Time)	14 km (9 mi) S from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 4.9	16 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 09:59 (Port Moresby Time)	23 km (14 mi) S from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 4.1	18 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 11:22 (Port Moresby Time)	15 km (9 mi) NNW from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 4.1	18 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 11:22 (Port Moresby Time)	15 km (9 mi) NNW from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 4.3	19 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 12:37 (Port Moresby Time)	26 km (16 mi) WNW from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 4.1	19 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 13:04 (Port Moresby Time)	55 km (34 mi) SE from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 4.2	21 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 14:55 (Port Moresby Time)	18 km (11 mi) W from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 4.3	21 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 15:00 (Port Moresby Time)	12 km (7 mi) ESE from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 5.5	22 hrs later Nov 14, 2023 15:53 (Port Moresby Time)	13 km (8 mi) S from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 5.1	1 day later Nov 14, 2023 23:27 (Port Moresby Time)	7 km (4 mi) SSE from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 5.1	1 day later Nov 14, 2023 23:29 (Port Moresby Time)	0.2 km (0.1 mi) N from Main Shock.
Aftershock	M 4.5	1 day later Nov 15, 2023 01:34 (Port Moresby Time)	59 km (37 mi) ENE from Main Shock.

More earthquakes coming?

The risk of aftershocks decreases rapidly over time. Usually, aftershocks are at least one order of magnitude lower than a main shock.

In only six percent of cases, significant earthquakes are followed by a larger main shock, making the current earthquake a foreshock. While the chance of this happening is not so large, it is adviced to maintain cautiousness in the hours and days following a major earthquake.

Read: How to Stay Safe during an Earthquake (cdc.gov).

Earthquakes like this happen often in the region

Earthquakes of this strength are very common in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since March 7th, 2023, when a 5.9 magnitude earthquake hit 94 km (58 mi) further west-northwest. An even stronger magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck on December 17th, 2016.

In total, 51 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.9 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every 2 months.

Low tsunami risk

DISCLAIMER: We strongly suggest to closely monitor advice from local authorities with regards to tsunami risks. Our analysis is based on automatically collected data from external sources, and these might contain mistakes. In addition, earthquakes can cause landslides that may lead to a tsunami, or be a followed by another, potentially stonger, earthquake.

Based on early data it appears this earthquake was not strong enough (lower than MAG-6.5) to be likely to cause destructive tsunami's. However this earthquake appeared to have hit at a shallow depth under sea, so stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.

Tsunami Risk Factors

Factor	Under Sea?	MAG-6.5 or stronger?	Shallow depth?
Explanation	Almost all tsunami's are caused by earthquakes with their epicenter under sea or very near the sea. However stay cautious in coastal areas as earthquakes on land may cause landslides into sea, potentially still causing a local tsunami.	Under MAG 6.5: Very unlikely to cause a tsunami. MAG 6.5 to 7.5: Destructive tsunami's do occur, but are uncommon. Likely to observe small sea level changes. MAG 7.6+: Earthquakes with these magnitudes might produce destructive tsunami's.	Most destructive tsunami's are caused by shallow earthquakes with a depth between 0 and 100km under the surface of the earth. Deeper tsunami's are unlikely to displace to ocean floor.
This Earthquake	This earthquake appears to have struck under the sea.	Not this earthquake. This earthquake had a magnitude of 5.9. Earthquakes of this strength are unlikely to trigger a tsunami.	This earthquake occurred at a depth of of 10 km (6 mi). Earthquakes this shallow could trigger a tsunami.

Sources

Last updated 08/12/23 03:18 (). This article is automatically generated based on available data. We keep checking multiple sources for additional information. This article gets updated as new details on this earthquake become available.