On Sunday Afternoon a Shallow M5.5 FORESHOCK struck in the Bismarck Sea 135km from Kokopo (Papua New Guinea).

Written by Earthquakelist.org on November 12th, 2023. Last updated December 9th, 2023.

In the Bismarck Sea 135 kilometer from Kokopo, Papua New Guinea, a shallow and significant Magnitude 5.5 foreshock occurred in the afternoon of Sunday November 12th, 2023. Shaking may have been felt by a total of 660 thousand people.

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Earthquake Summary

This earthquake hit under water in the Bismarck Sea, 57 kilometers (35 mi) off the coast of Papua New Guinea, 135 kilometer west-northwest of Kokopo in East New Britain. The center of this earthquake had a very shallow depth of 10 km. Shallow earthquakes usually have a larger impact than earthquakes deep in the earth.

Date and Time:	Nov 12, 2023 15:54 (Port Moresby Time) - Nov 12, 2023 05:54 Universal Time.
Location:	135 km WNW of Kokopo, East New Britain, Papua New Guinea. Coordinates 3°49'29"S 151°10'14"E.
Map:	Map of area around epicenter. Click to open in Google Maps.
Magnitude:	MAG 5.5 Detected by 19 stations. Maximum Error Range ±0.071 .
Depth:	10 km (6 mi) A very shallow depth.
Max. Intensity:	IV Light On the Modified Mercalli Scale.
Tsunami Risk:	Low tsunami risk Earthquakes under MAG-6.5 do not usually cause tsunami's. Always stay cautious - More info here.

Minimal impact predicted

Based on scientific estimates by the US Geographic Survey (USGS), the risk of high fatalities for this earthquake is classified at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 fatalities, and a 96% chance that the number of fatalities falls no higher than 10.

The USGS classifies the economic impact of this earthquake at level GREEN (low). They expect an 65% likelyhood of between 0 and 1 million US Dollars in economic damage and impact, and a 96% chance that the economic impact of this earthquake falls no higher than 10 million USD.

Roughly 660 thousand people exposed to shaking

An estimated 660 thousand have been exposed to shaking (An MMI or Modified Mercalli Intensity level II or higher) as a result of this earthquake according scientific estimates published by the USGS.

An estimated 77,310 people were exposed to level IV. At this level, light shaking and likely no damage can be expected. Intensity level III was experienced by the majority of people (around 580 thousand). In their region, weak shaking and probably no damage can be expected. All exposure to shaking was within the borders of Papua New Guinea .

Nearby towns and cities

This earthquake may have been felt in Papua New Guinea . The closest significant population center near the earthquake is Kokopo in East New Britain, Papua New Guinea. Kokopo is located 135 kilometer (84 mi) west-northwest of the epicenter. Kokopo experienced an earthquake intensity (MMI Scale) of roughly III. That level implies weak shaking and probably no damage.

Overview of nearby places

Earthquake Intensity Map

The graph below overlays a map of the region around the epicenter with earthquake intensity data provided by the US Geographic Survey. The highest intensity level detected for this earthquake is IV.

I Not felt

II Weak

III Weak

IV Light

V Moderate

VI Strong

VII Very Strong

VIII Severe

IX Violent

X Extreme

This is likely a foreshock

This earthquake was followed by a stronger MAG-6.1 earthquake, classifying this earthquake as a foreshock.

Overview of foreshocks and aftershocks

More earthquakes coming?

Aftershocks are usually at least 1 order of magnitude less strong than main shocks. The more time passes, the smaller the chance and likely strength of any potential aftershocks.

It's always adviced to be cautious of the risk of a larger shock following any significant earthquake, however this risk is fairly small. There is a roughly 94 percent change that no larger main shock will follow in the days following this earthquake.

Earthquakes like this happen often in the region

Earthquakes of this strength are very common in the region. This is the strongest earthquake to hit since November 12th, 2023, when a 5.9 magnitude earthquake hit 28 km (17 mi) further north-east. An even stronger magnitude 7.9 earthquake struck on December 17th, 2016.

In total, 122 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher have been registered within 300km (186 mi) of this epicenter in the past 10 years. This comes down to an average of once every 30 days.

Low tsunami risk

Based on early data it appears this earthquake was not strong enough (lower than MAG-6.5) to be likely to cause destructive tsunami's. However this earthquake appeared to have hit at a shallow depth under sea, so stay cautious and monitor advice from local authorities.

Tsunami Risk Factors

Sources

Last updated 09/12/23 01:28 (). This article contains currently available information about the earthquake and is automatically composed. We continue to update this article up to a few days after the earthquake occurred.

1. US Geographic Society (USGS): Earthquake us7000lafn
2. European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC): Earthquake 20231112_0000052
3. Geonames.org: World Cities Database
4. Google Maps: Static API
5. Earthquakelist.org: Historic Earthquakes Database

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